Let's call it Bubble Tuesday - or more accurately, Double Bubble Tuesday.
Yes, not one but two major reports from separate think-tanks hit the media yesterday using the dreaded 'B' word in relation to Canada's housing market. Curiously, one of them generated tons of high profile coverage throughout the major outlets Canada-wide, and sent many in the online world all a-Twitter.
If you read the coverage of that report from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA), which purported that Canada's major housing markets were sitting in a precarious 30-year bubble and were an "accident waiting to happen," please come out from hiding under your bed long enough to read this.
The sky in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, and Ottawa may not be falling after all.
Bubble report number two, this one from the CD Howe Institute, added a little more context and perspective and summarized that no, Canada is not poised for a housing bust, thanks to sensible housing policies.
First, what the heck is a "bubble," anyway? Simply put, it refers to a situation where rapid and significant increases in property values reach levels that become unsustainable, relative to peoples' income and other economic indicators. The "bust" occurs when prices fall and owners are left in a negative equity scenario - a mortgage debt higher than than the value of the property. This leaves owners "underwater" - a term you may be hearing a lot recently, in reference to the US market.
The fundamental differences between the US and Canadian markets, CD Howe points out, are that while monetary policy was similar in both countries from 2000-2008, housing markets (especially the sub-prime component) were structured and regulated very differently in each. The Canadian sub-prime market never expanded significantly into newer products, such as interest-only or "negative-amorization mortgages," whose popularity grew rapidly in the US from 2003- to 2006.
In addition, Canada maintained tighter conditions on government guaranteed insurance against mortgage default.
These Canadian policies, which avoided the sharp decline in underwriting standards seen in the US, worked well in reducing the possibility of a housing bust in Canada during 2008 to 2009. They continue to mitigate the risk of a wave of defaults in the future, CD Howe says.
To be sure, parts of Canada are clearly facing challenging times in terms of home prices, sales, housing starts and all the other key indicators. But our national housing agency, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., also said on Double Bubble Tuesday that the market continues to stabilize.
After rebounding in the second half of 2009 and early 2010, housing starts are expected to moderate in the second half of 2010. Starts are expected to stablize at levels consistent with demographic fundamentals in 2011, CMHC says.
With supply and demand more balanced, the average home prices are expected to edge lower through the end of 2010 and then rise modestly in 2011.
That doesn't exactly sound like a bubble.
All of this serves as a strong reminder to:
a) Always consider the source of such news. No offence, but a housing report with such a strong position from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives? How often does that group monitor real estate, and with what expertise? I think I'll take the CMCH's or CD Howe's perspective, thank you.
and
b) Always look at real estate at a local level, not a national one. What's happening on the other side of the country may have no affect whatsoever on your own market, your neighbourhood and the specific home you buy.
Whether you're buying investment properties or your primary residence, smart buys and good deals can be found even in "difficult" markets, when you drill down deep enough.
Sorry to burst the CCPA's "bubble."











